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Saturday, June 20, 2009

Q&A From Friday's London Session

Q: I notice you post 1Hour charts, do you only trade from this time frame, and do you only trade the setups you have been showing on your blog?

A: Yes, 1H. It is what timeframe I did most of my learning on, and now it is the best timeframe, for me, as far as reading PA. To put it in other words, "I prefer the 1H charts because it is what I am most comfortable with."

As far as the trade setups I post? I have the most faith in the type of setups I post on the blog. I try to stick with very high probability trades when I trade, and especially if I am going to post them. I know there are a lot of noobs (newbies, or new traders) that come to the blog looking for trade advice, so I'm just trying to keep responsible in that regard. As far as the setups, I think a few of the other readers will attest, that when a break occurs on those setups, you can always catch a few pips, 10-20 for sure, most of the time 30-50. That is, quick trades, usually no more than an hour or two. The problem is holding too long, and giving all the pips back, while waiting for the 100 pip moves. I will take the 100+ pip trades when I can get them, but I will try not to let a price reversal, wipe out all my profit. A pip is a pip is a pip! I also make most of my trades just an hour or two before Tokyo open, and the same going into London on those setups because that is when the "squeezes" occur most often. I also like the PA during those times, because it is usually more predictable. It keeps trading hours reasonable.

Up until just a few months ago, I was trading 18-20 hours a day. I'd catch the first few hours of Asia, then sleep a couple of hours. Alarm would wake me, and I'd do the same for London. Sometimes I'd hold trades through London and not sleep before NY. I was always exhausted, grumpy, and had not time for my kids, or myself. to top it all off, I was starting to make bad decisions, and I was deviating from my trade plans. My trading became emotional, and that is BAD. I was getting burnt out, and had to do something, or otherwise, I was going to need to find a new profession. Now, I've simplified things and cut my trading day down to about 6-7 hours. I wish I would have done this years ago.

Below, I've posted three charts. These are some setups I mentioned on one of the bulletin boards, this Friday going into London Session.

There was a wedge on the EURJPY that pushed up against the 134.50, and broke for 60.

There was a consolidation squeeze forming on the GBPUSD, and once it broke the .6372 resistance line, it broke for about 65 pips. Point being, there was room on these two setups to easily pull out 30-40 pips.

The trade I took, just because I've recently become most comfortable with the PA on the GBPJPY, was a break out of a range (green dash lines), and I entered on a break of the 158.50 psyche level. I got out of it with 100 pips on this trade. I didn't trade all three setups because, the 2 Yen pairs are too closely related. My first choice was the GBPJPY, and the other two were linked somehow, and have too similar PA. Any moves, if negative would have been, a double loss, so that is why I only traded one. The green lines on the GBPJPY was the range I was watching. I waited for the break out of the range at 158.25, and then I waited for confirmation of the move, watching for a strong break of 158.50. This is when I entered the trade.

The other two setups were not as clear cut as they usually are. As I had mentioned on the board posts, around the time the setups formed, PA was iffy. I didn't like the PA at all. The price whipped in both directions too much, and didn't keep in the squeeze zone as I like to see them do. But looking at the charts now, they really weren't that bad. (It's easy to say now when you're not putting up real money.) For me, the GBPJPY was the clearer setup. I'm just glad I took the GBPJPY because it always moves the most, and it netted the most pips out of these possible trades.

(A video covering these charts. the setups, and the reasoning behind them, will be posted soon.)



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