Not going to make a Tokyo video today. Don't have time. So trade safe everyone, and we'll see how London shapes up. Will probably post a video then.
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Tokyo Session
Everything accross the board is consolidating, going into Tokyo. It looks too good to be true, and probably is. If I were to chose one, it would be the Cable, just because it has room to retrace, and/or the sharp decline could continue.
Not going to make a Tokyo video today. Don't have time. So trade safe everyone, and we'll see how London shapes up. Will probably post a video then.
Not going to make a Tokyo video today. Don't have time. So trade safe everyone, and we'll see how London shapes up. Will probably post a video then.
VIDEO: Chart Preview going into London, Tokyo Review
Move has already begun on the Cable. This is why I think a live room would be better. Don't forget to answer the poll question to the upper right of this page. Thanks!
Monday, June 29, 2009
VIDEO: London Review EURJPY and Tokyo Preview
Not mentioned on the video is that the GBPJPY is also forming a consolidation squeeze. The shape is more of a wedge, but nonetheless, a squeeze is happening, which is normal for this time of the trading day. Also, EURJPY is forming a consolidation wedge.
See GBPJPY Chart Below Video
See GBPJPY Chart Below Video
EURJPY
EURJPY is trading tight too. Looking for a possible break and hold of 134. Key hurdle looks like 134.10
Summer Holidays and Volume
Long list of news coming out today. JPY unemployment, and GBP-GDP. Check out the news schedule at the bottom of the FXTradePros.com home page. GJ is in a 50 pip range, continuing where it left off on Friday, with nothing really setting up.
Just want to note, Summer is a slower trading period, with less volume. A large portion of the market volume is traded by financial institutions, Bankers. This is the time of year that they take their Holidays. Volume gets thin, and volatility can set in. So be aware. Especially during news time. Sometimes, news is one way, but the market goes the other. Keep a very close watch on open trades. PA is rather unpredictable this time of year.
Just want to note, Summer is a slower trading period, with less volume. A large portion of the market volume is traded by financial institutions, Bankers. This is the time of year that they take their Holidays. Volume gets thin, and volatility can set in. So be aware. Especially during news time. Sometimes, news is one way, but the market goes the other. Keep a very close watch on open trades. PA is rather unpredictable this time of year.
Friday, June 26, 2009
VIDEO: Trade Review from London, and Chart Analysis for Tokyo
Review of a trade on GBPUSD during London Session. Review of the setup and why I took the buy, and why I closed it when I did. wanted to point out setups, that should be easy to recognize, going into today's Tokyo session.
If you would, could you answer the Poll question, off to the right side of the page. I'm wanting to start doing live chart reviews going into mainly the London, and with time permitting, a short session going into Tokyo. Thank you.
If you would, could you answer the Poll question, off to the right side of the page. I'm wanting to start doing live chart reviews going into mainly the London, and with time permitting, a short session going into Tokyo. Thank you.
Thursday, June 25, 2009
Daily Webinar
On the right side of the page, you will see a poll, asking what your interest might be in a Live room, where all the guests can view my charts, and hear me speak as I analyze setups, PA, and answer questions. No downloads required. Of course, this would be a free service for the first month or two, maybe more, until we see what the response is.
Please give your answer if you would like, in the upper right side of this page. Thanks!
Please give your answer if you would like, in the upper right side of this page. Thanks!
VIDEO: Chart Preview going into London
Preview of Forex charts going into London Session. Possible setups on the Cable as well as the USDCHF and EURUSD.
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
VIDEO: Chart Review Going Into Tokyo Session
Video review of charts going into Tokyo. Quiet time of the trading day, so not a lot of exciting setups to look at. I will try to get videos posted prior to London and Tokyo sessions, on a more regular basis.
What is setting up that wasn't so clear as I was recording the video, is a Consolidation forming on the Cable and the EURUSD. Consolidations for this time of day are normal, because there are no major markets open. NY closed 2 hours ago, so the volume decreases, and so does the swing in prices, so they start to squeeze. Once Tokyo opens, price needs to move somewhere so, they will break, it is just a matter of "how far." This is the reason I like trading the openings of the major markets. You know the prices will move, and if it is in a tight range or a squeeze, you can expect a break. It is just a matter of "when" and "how far."
There is some news coming out at the beginning of the Tokyo session, primarily Trade Balance numbers, so be aware if you have open trades. Check the calendar at the bottom of the page for the exact times.
What is setting up that wasn't so clear as I was recording the video, is a Consolidation forming on the Cable and the EURUSD. Consolidations for this time of day are normal, because there are no major markets open. NY closed 2 hours ago, so the volume decreases, and so does the swing in prices, so they start to squeeze. Once Tokyo opens, price needs to move somewhere so, they will break, it is just a matter of "how far." This is the reason I like trading the openings of the major markets. You know the prices will move, and if it is in a tight range or a squeeze, you can expect a break. It is just a matter of "when" and "how far."
There is some news coming out at the beginning of the Tokyo session, primarily Trade Balance numbers, so be aware if you have open trades. Check the calendar at the bottom of the page for the exact times.
Tokyo Session and Review of London
This is a review of a trade from the London Session on the GBPJPY. Then there are a couple different charts reviewed going into Tokyo session.
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
VIDEO: Chart Review Going Into London Session
This is a Video Review of a couple trades setups in the Tokyo Session, and a review of a couple charts going into the London Trading Session. Even if you missed the trading session, and this may be days or weeks old, the videos found here are mostly review of trade setups and what to look for. It is to help you learn the chart patterns, and to train your vision in what to look for when looking at your charts. It may seem monotonous, but it doesn't hurt to see the same setup over and over again. It is how we all learn. I believe, you can never study Forex enough, no matter the method you use. Even if you are using a auto trading robot, you need to learn the basics to understand the concepts behind the forex trade.
Monday, June 22, 2009
EURJPY setting up the same way as the GBPJPY
133.26 is holding as support and 133.69 is holding as top. a Break on either JPY pairs maybe short lived, or it could carry into London, so if you take a trade, keep stops tight or keep a close eye on the PA. The week is young, don't force anything. 158.50 and 139.69 may keep them contained, as PA has slowed down this hour so far.
GBPJPY Going into European and London Markets
It has come down since Tokyo open and has found a range between 157.67 and 158.50. These were key S/R going into London on Friday. I'm watching for break and hold out of the range, maybe even as soon as a break of support at 158.
Video: Trade Setups, and Q&A From the London Session on Friday June 19, 2009
This is a video review, in 3 parts of Friday's setups, going into London Session, and a further explanation on some Q&A posted on last Friday.
Part 1 of 3 EURJPY and GBPUSD
Part 2 of 3 GBPJPY
Part 3 of 3 Q&A Review
Part 1 of 3 EURJPY and GBPUSD
Part 2 of 3 GBPJPY
Part 3 of 3 Q&A Review
Saturday, June 20, 2009
Q&A From Friday's London Session
Q: I notice you post 1Hour charts, do you only trade from this time frame, and do you only trade the setups you have been showing on your blog?
A: Yes, 1H. It is what timeframe I did most of my learning on, and now it is the best timeframe, for me, as far as reading PA. To put it in other words, "I prefer the 1H charts because it is what I am most comfortable with."
As far as the trade setups I post? I have the most faith in the type of setups I post on the blog. I try to stick with very high probability trades when I trade, and especially if I am going to post them. I know there are a lot of noobs (newbies, or new traders) that come to the blog looking for trade advice, so I'm just trying to keep responsible in that regard. As far as the setups, I think a few of the other readers will attest, that when a break occurs on those setups, you can always catch a few pips, 10-20 for sure, most of the time 30-50. That is, quick trades, usually no more than an hour or two. The problem is holding too long, and giving all the pips back, while waiting for the 100 pip moves. I will take the 100+ pip trades when I can get them, but I will try not to let a price reversal, wipe out all my profit. A pip is a pip is a pip! I also make most of my trades just an hour or two before Tokyo open, and the same going into London on those setups because that is when the "squeezes" occur most often. I also like the PA during those times, because it is usually more predictable. It keeps trading hours reasonable.
Up until just a few months ago, I was trading 18-20 hours a day. I'd catch the first few hours of Asia, then sleep a couple of hours. Alarm would wake me, and I'd do the same for London. Sometimes I'd hold trades through London and not sleep before NY. I was always exhausted, grumpy, and had not time for my kids, or myself. to top it all off, I was starting to make bad decisions, and I was deviating from my trade plans. My trading became emotional, and that is BAD. I was getting burnt out, and had to do something, or otherwise, I was going to need to find a new profession. Now, I've simplified things and cut my trading day down to about 6-7 hours. I wish I would have done this years ago.
Below, I've posted three charts. These are some setups I mentioned on one of the bulletin boards, this Friday going into London Session.
There was a wedge on the EURJPY that pushed up against the 134.50, and broke for 60.
There was a consolidation squeeze forming on the GBPUSD, and once it broke the .6372 resistance line, it broke for about 65 pips. Point being, there was room on these two setups to easily pull out 30-40 pips.
The trade I took, just because I've recently become most comfortable with the PA on the GBPJPY, was a break out of a range (green dash lines), and I entered on a break of the 158.50 psyche level. I got out of it with 100 pips on this trade. I didn't trade all three setups because, the 2 Yen pairs are too closely related. My first choice was the GBPJPY, and the other two were linked somehow, and have too similar PA. Any moves, if negative would have been, a double loss, so that is why I only traded one. The green lines on the GBPJPY was the range I was watching. I waited for the break out of the range at 158.25, and then I waited for confirmation of the move, watching for a strong break of 158.50. This is when I entered the trade.
The other two setups were not as clear cut as they usually are. As I had mentioned on the board posts, around the time the setups formed, PA was iffy. I didn't like the PA at all. The price whipped in both directions too much, and didn't keep in the squeeze zone as I like to see them do. But looking at the charts now, they really weren't that bad. (It's easy to say now when you're not putting up real money.) For me, the GBPJPY was the clearer setup. I'm just glad I took the GBPJPY because it always moves the most, and it netted the most pips out of these possible trades.
(A video covering these charts. the setups, and the reasoning behind them, will be posted soon.)
A: Yes, 1H. It is what timeframe I did most of my learning on, and now it is the best timeframe, for me, as far as reading PA. To put it in other words, "I prefer the 1H charts because it is what I am most comfortable with."
As far as the trade setups I post? I have the most faith in the type of setups I post on the blog. I try to stick with very high probability trades when I trade, and especially if I am going to post them. I know there are a lot of noobs (newbies, or new traders) that come to the blog looking for trade advice, so I'm just trying to keep responsible in that regard. As far as the setups, I think a few of the other readers will attest, that when a break occurs on those setups, you can always catch a few pips, 10-20 for sure, most of the time 30-50. That is, quick trades, usually no more than an hour or two. The problem is holding too long, and giving all the pips back, while waiting for the 100 pip moves. I will take the 100+ pip trades when I can get them, but I will try not to let a price reversal, wipe out all my profit. A pip is a pip is a pip! I also make most of my trades just an hour or two before Tokyo open, and the same going into London on those setups because that is when the "squeezes" occur most often. I also like the PA during those times, because it is usually more predictable. It keeps trading hours reasonable.
Up until just a few months ago, I was trading 18-20 hours a day. I'd catch the first few hours of Asia, then sleep a couple of hours. Alarm would wake me, and I'd do the same for London. Sometimes I'd hold trades through London and not sleep before NY. I was always exhausted, grumpy, and had not time for my kids, or myself. to top it all off, I was starting to make bad decisions, and I was deviating from my trade plans. My trading became emotional, and that is BAD. I was getting burnt out, and had to do something, or otherwise, I was going to need to find a new profession. Now, I've simplified things and cut my trading day down to about 6-7 hours. I wish I would have done this years ago.
Below, I've posted three charts. These are some setups I mentioned on one of the bulletin boards, this Friday going into London Session.
There was a wedge on the EURJPY that pushed up against the 134.50, and broke for 60.
There was a consolidation squeeze forming on the GBPUSD, and once it broke the .6372 resistance line, it broke for about 65 pips. Point being, there was room on these two setups to easily pull out 30-40 pips.
The trade I took, just because I've recently become most comfortable with the PA on the GBPJPY, was a break out of a range (green dash lines), and I entered on a break of the 158.50 psyche level. I got out of it with 100 pips on this trade. I didn't trade all three setups because, the 2 Yen pairs are too closely related. My first choice was the GBPJPY, and the other two were linked somehow, and have too similar PA. Any moves, if negative would have been, a double loss, so that is why I only traded one. The green lines on the GBPJPY was the range I was watching. I waited for the break out of the range at 158.25, and then I waited for confirmation of the move, watching for a strong break of 158.50. This is when I entered the trade.
The other two setups were not as clear cut as they usually are. As I had mentioned on the board posts, around the time the setups formed, PA was iffy. I didn't like the PA at all. The price whipped in both directions too much, and didn't keep in the squeeze zone as I like to see them do. But looking at the charts now, they really weren't that bad. (It's easy to say now when you're not putting up real money.) For me, the GBPJPY was the clearer setup. I'm just glad I took the GBPJPY because it always moves the most, and it netted the most pips out of these possible trades.
(A video covering these charts. the setups, and the reasoning behind them, will be posted soon.)
Thursday, June 18, 2009
VIDEO: Psyche Levels, GBP Retail Sales, GBPJPY Going Into London
Discussion on using "Psyche Levels" for support and resistance. Outlined consolidation squeezes on the EURJPY and the GBPJPY just before Tokyo. Also discussing risk aversion, the USD and GBP Retail Sales, and a buy taken on GBPJPY.
(To enlarge, click on button next to HQ at bottom of screen)
(To enlarge, click on button next to HQ at bottom of screen)
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
VIDEO: Review of Yesterday's set-ups and AUD Post
This is a review of the results, from a video posted before yesterday's Tokyo Session. There was 100 pip move on the GBPJPY. 50 pip move on the GBPUSD, and 60 pips on the EURJPY. Later, before the London Session, a post was put on the blog about a possible break on the AUDUSD. That move was 60 pips. This video is to review the set-ups, the breaks to watch for, and the resulting moves after the breaks.
(To enlarge, click on button next to HQ at bottom of screen)
(To enlarge, click on button next to HQ at bottom of screen)
RE: AUDUSD
AUDUSD has made the 30-40 pip move I suggested. Watch for this .7980 area to hold as support, or it could slide back down. Would be nice if it would hold, to see if it could make another run up when London opens in just over an hour.
Wedge forming on AUDUSD going into London
A wedge is being squeezed up against the Daily Pivot of .7934. Watch for a break up for about a 30-40 pip move.
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
VIDEO: Review of GBPJPY, GBPUSD and EURJPY going into Tokyo Session
A Video review of an earlier post, and review of Forex Charts going into Tokyo Session. Review of GBPJPY, GBPUSD, and EURJPY.
(To enlarge, click on button next to HQ at bottom of screen)
(To enlarge, click on button next to HQ at bottom of screen)
Short term outlook for the GBPJPY
Price is approaching the weekly and daily pivot, which are almost right on top of each other. (159.73-.88) There is also a prior S/R level, between the two, at 159.78. It is already showing some resistance getting up to that area by a bounce off the Psyche level at .50, but keep an eye on PA. If it makes the approach, and breaks through the pivots quite easily, it could be a sign of a fast run back up. If it makes another attempt at the pivots, and is showing some signs of resitance, it could then take a bounce and make a nice retracement. It also could find a range between 159 and the pivots, as it did earlier, at the end of the NY session. Then watch for a break of the range.
The yellow lines on the chart are the S/R levels, I drew that past week and a half, during the uptrend.
The yellow lines on the chart are the S/R levels, I drew that past week and a half, during the uptrend.
Monday, June 15, 2009
VIDEO: GBPJPY Review June 15 09
Review of a Forex trade set-up posted on Friday, of a potential short on the GBPJPY. Also, discussion of shorting during an uptrend.
(To enlarge, click on button next to HQ at bottom of screen)
(To enlarge, click on button next to HQ at bottom of screen)
Talk of Risk Aversion
There was some talk in support of the USD at the G8 meeting this weekend in Italy. This morning, some players are talking about a drive toward Risk Aversion to start the week. The USD has already gained some momentum this morning as reports of a rise in the sale of US Treasuries for the month of April, over the same numbers in March. Russia’s Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said that Russia still has faith in the USD as the world's reserve currency. He also went on that is was too early to talk about replacing the USD as the reserve currency. This statement coming, after sometime last week, a colleague of his had suggested otherwise.
Risk Aversion may also see a buying spree on the JPY later in the day also.
Risk Aversion may also see a buying spree on the JPY later in the day also.
Friday, June 12, 2009
GBPJPY setting up like yesterday
161.60 area is getting hammered but has been the main area of support for the past 14 hours. Rememeber, the overall trend is up, so this is to be veiwed as a retracement. Key levels to watch are a break of .59, then the psyche level of .50, the daily pivot, and then 161. A 50 pip retracement would be decent.
That's what I'm seeing right now. I won't make a vid of this one. If you want, you can review yesterday's, as it is the same sort of set-up.
That's what I'm seeing right now. I won't make a vid of this one. If you want, you can review yesterday's, as it is the same sort of set-up.
Thursday, June 11, 2009
RE: GBPJPY
Has broken and is holding. I got in at .41. PA is erratic, so I'm watching closely. 3 key support areas to get through for a decent move down. The .12 pivot, psyche level of 160, then 159.78.
RE: Video GBPJPY
It made a push, but didn't hold but the 1H candles are staying in a down trendline, squeezing it against the support area (.40-.50) I moved the support to .41, so watch for a break and hold. The yen has lost a little ground to the dollar the past couple of hours, so it is causing a stalemate of sorts.
Keep your eyes open, PA is picking up.
RE: GBPJPY
If the downward push weakens, also for watch a break above the 160.85, then 161. It has been in a tight range of .40 to .85. As posted in the video, I just like to see when a few hours of candles are stacked up and trying to hammer through support.
VIDEO: GBPJPY going into London Session
Possible set-up to watch for going into London session.
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
RE: USDCAD
Just a reminder that CAD Trade Balance comes out at 13:30 London time. If you are in GBP trades, UK Trade Balance is out in 20 minutes.
RE: USDCAD
Looks like this hour's candle will hold below. For those who are watching, just wanted to show where I see the next levels of support. Put it on a 4H so it would fit on the blog.
USDCAD
It has made 3 attemps to break below 1.0990. Watch for a break and look for 1.10 to become resistance, and hold, before a move down. Also the tops of the last several candles are coming down, and it could even form a wedge before NY.
Tuesday, June 9, 2009
VIDEO: AUD Wedge Break and GBPJPY Consolidation Break
These are set-ups I posted on the blog. Some readers expressed an interest in how, or what I saw, that made me think they might have some significance. AUDUSD formed a wedge, up against a resistance line, and made a break of the short term trendline for a 140 pip move.
The GBPJPY traded in a range going into closing on Friday, and then continued to range after opening Monday, that formed a squeeze, or consolidation. Then made a 150 pip move after the break.
TO ENLARGE VIDEO: Click on the the button, to the right of the Volume button, at the bottom of the picture.
The GBPJPY traded in a range going into closing on Friday, and then continued to range after opening Monday, that formed a squeeze, or consolidation. Then made a 150 pip move after the break.
Quick Notes
Quick notes.... Looking at the majors, wedge formed on EURJPY and just broke, at the 137. Wedge on the USDCHF and light wedge, that is starting to taper off into a tight range on the EURUSD. Usually don't get big moves during the Tokyo session that I like to see, not like London, so I think it is best to just watch these. They aren't real high on my confidence scale.
Monday, June 8, 2009
RE: AUDUSD
On the AUD, I typed the wrong number.... I meant .7980, and not .8080. I drew the wedge I was talking about, and will post it so you can see it. Sorry if I confused anyone.
EURJPY
EURJPY, was ranging a bit befor the NFP spike,and then again, after the spike between the Daily and weekly pivot. Near closing on Friday it spiked up to 138.15 and has started to consolidate between the weekly pivot and today's open at 137.36. Something to watch... PA is still very slow, and I'm not going to force any trades.
GBPUSD and GBPJPY
GBPUSD has been following Friday's trendline down and has yet to get back to 1.5970, but now is threatening to break above the trendline. PA is slow, but it is Monday.
GBPJPY, after staying above Friday's trendline, following the NFP, has since taken a dive under the trendline, also below the 157, and then took a bounce off of the 156.50. One of the readers, joked with me about my affection for the psyche levels on the GBPJPY, well if you look at most of the S/R levels, 158, 157.50, 157, 156. 50, etc. on this pair, they are very reliable, more so than on any other pair.
EURUSD is still shying away from 1.40.
Of note, the AUDUSD is starting to form a wedge, with .8080 as resistance.
Things to watch for early this Monday
Hope you all had a great weekend. As some of you know, I'm not a big fan of forcing trades on Monday, unless there is a clear set-up. No set-ups forming yet, as it is still early. What I'm watching right now is if and how the GBPJPY settles into a range of 157-158. Looking to see if the GBPUSD stays below 160.30, which held for a few hours as support, and then became a resistance level after NFP. 1.5970 is where the GAP started, then closed the gap, and has shown resistance for the past 3 hours. This will be the level to watch for now. In the EURUSD, I'm watching 1.40, and watching to see if it holds, bounces, or breaks.
Saturday, June 6, 2009
Video: Examples of Consolidation and Squeezes
Sorry my narrative is a bit choppy. First video, so just getting the hang of it. Noticed one of many mistakes. I said "wrong side" of a trade, and I meant the "right side" of the trade. I'm sure you understood what I meant, but I hope I will get better at it with time.... Keyword: Hope. Will post more videos in the future when time permits. Thank you!
Video: Straddle Trades During News Non-Farm Payroll
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Friday, June 5, 2009
RE: GBPJPY and GBPUSD
PA looks good on both, but slowing a bit. Opportunity to clear 50 pips on each. Moves stops to B/E, or enough to preserve some profit. If I'm not back later, I hope you all have a great weekend. 
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Great example of a set up on the EURCHF
I have been watching this set up, but the EURCHF is usually a slow mover, so I didn't post it, because most of us are the high octane junkies on the GBPJPY. It set up nice and makes for a good chart, so I wanted to post it. It is a great example of something to watch for, going up, or down.
See all the PA stacked up along the 1.5163 line? Then, the candles pushed up tighter against it and got smaller and smaller. This is a great sort of break to watch for on any pair.
See all the PA stacked up along the 1.5163 line? Then, the candles pushed up tighter against it and got smaller and smaller. This is a great sort of break to watch for on any pair.
GBPJPY and GBPUSD
That was a week run, I decided to B/E on the GBPJPY and closed with 40 after the Cable bounced off the weekly pivot. If you feel comfortable with where your stops are, I think it is still OK to hold. Just watch the USDJPY for direction too. Sometimes it will move before the other 2 pairs. Action should pick up again in the next hour or two.
I spent the day with my kids today, and didn't get much sleep last night. Don't know how much longer I will hang in. Watch the 155.50 and the 1.61, and any reaction off the trendlines. They may push down again. Today is Non Farm Payroll. The biggest news event in Forex, so be careful, UDS crosses and any others, as Risk aversion/appetite can also enter the picture, especially if the actual numbers are off the projected numbers. 520k jobs lost is the expected number.
I spent the day with my kids today, and didn't get much sleep last night. Don't know how much longer I will hang in. Watch the 155.50 and the 1.61, and any reaction off the trendlines. They may push down again. Today is Non Farm Payroll. The biggest news event in Forex, so be careful, UDS crosses and any others, as Risk aversion/appetite can also enter the picture, especially if the actual numbers are off the projected numbers. 520k jobs lost is the expected number.
GBPUSD weekly pivot at 1.6049
Watch for support at the weekly pivot at 1.6049, and then again at 1.60
RE: GBPJPY
Not liking the PA right now. If you entered, keep stops tight, just above the trendline break. Possible confirmation of a move would be a break of 155.50. With this PA, I think I'd like to see that happen first. Watch for the candle to break the blue line, and hold below it. Right now, it is bouncing above and below. The next hour, usually picks up.
GBPUSD pressure on 1.61
This can sometimes be a nice break to watch for. See the downward pressure being applied to the 1.61 level? Watch for a steady move on a break downward. There might be some resistance at 160.81, could possibly bounce, but more often than not, it should make a move down. Remember, profit is profit. Looks like it is breaking now, but just keep an eye on it.
GBPJPY
Looking at the GBPJPY, it has traded a range of 157 and 155.50 (Psyche levels). A squeeze has formed, not as strong as I'd like see, but it is a clear tightening of the range. I'm going to try and post this quickly, as the moves have happened about this hour, this week, when it normally happens an hour or two later. Once a clear break of the blue consolidation lines has occurred, watch for S/R at 157 and 155.50.
Thursday, June 4, 2009
Q&A With A First Year Trader
This was taken from a thread I post on at ForexFactory.com:
Q: "Hi, I'm a pretty new trader, about 1years experience. Still looking to hone my skills. I've been around the trading roundabout; from naked charts to fundamental announcements to indicators and systems. Now I'm kinda rebuilding. I've been following this thread for a while now because I take particular interest in the GBP/JPY, and have found that you definitely know what your talking about. Thanks much and keep up the good work. What would be your advice to me to further develop my trading. I currently use multiple time frames and then scalp 1min. with a macd/rsi set up, coupled with some chart patterns. Pretty good so far, but I really would like to reach the level where I can analyze economic conditions, market sentiment, equities and the Dow so as to make better decisions. But then again would that work with my 1min time frames?"
A: "Thanks for the compliment! Always nice to hear!
As to your question: I think we're all different. My main flaw when starting out, was bad money management. I live in NV. I live in Reno now, but lived in Vegas for 11 years. This is the world capital of gambling. I have no problems throwing money around. My main problem was holding on to it. If I lost on a couple trades in a row, I'd double up, as if I was at the blackjack table.
Then after I conquered my bad money management, I then developed another bad habit. I would hold trades too long, either trying to wait for it to get out of the red, or instead of closing out and being happy with 30, 40 or 50 pips, I'd hold trying to get 100-200. I would be up 40 pips and instead of closing out, and taking profit (or moving my stop to break even), I'd hold too long and stop out at a loss, and if I was luck, I'd B/E. I still struggle with this problem. So these are my faults I worked on.
Trading strategy or methodology aside, what would you say are your fundamental faults? What ever you feel they are, correct them! It sounds like scalping the 1M chart is working for you. I can tell you it is not my cup of tea, but it works for you, and that is most important! When you are seriously trading, serious money, the most important thing is to be comfortable. If your head isn't in the right place, YOU WILL FAIL. The main thing is to establish a comfort level. When your comfortable, it is easier to be confident when you pull the trigger (click on buy or sell).
I am not a fan of indicators. I use only one, a MT4 custom indicator I think "Desperate" (John) posted on here a few months ago, and that is the AutoPivotIndicator_ver5. Was that you John? It shows a daily pivot, weekly and a monthly. That's it. Before I was a regular on FXFactory, I'd never heard the term "Naked Chartist." Now I know, I am a "Nudist" when it comes to my charts. I like to look at a bare chart, 1H, and I look for my three favorite patterns. They are the consolidation squeeze, and a tight horizontal range. The 3rd, I'm not even sure what the name is for it, but is when several hours of candles, are stacked up on a support line, or pushing up against a resistance line, and waiting for the collapse, or the explosion upward. Then coming up 4th, are clear trends and watching for trend breaks. I think it took a couple years of full time trading to really get a knack for it.
I think I learn and get better everyday. Forex really takes time. JUST REMEMBER: It doesn't matter what works for me, it is what you feel works best for you. I started trading in my mid 30's. After puberty hit, I was never the best student. I studied Economics and Finance at Chapman University in Southern California. Then in I think 1987, the movie "Wall Street" came out, and about the same time, "Trading Places." So, with a little over a year of College left, I started pumping out resumes to different investment firms. I was offered a job, quit school and went to work, and never looked back. Was I successful? Sometimes yes and sometimes not.
OK..... my point is, I am no fan of studying, books, classes, tutorials, seminars, none of it. I like to learn on my own, by throwing myself into the fire and learning by trial and error. With Forex, that was an expensive education! I spent a lot on paying for trade signals, live trade sessions, and mentoring. Some sucked and were a total waste of money, and others, I am grateful for. It was a lot of experimentation, and learning what was best and most comfortable for me. For you Jermy, it sounds like you are doing well for your first year of trading. If you are comfortable with your style, and you are making pips, you are in the elite 5%, and for a first year trader, I'd say you are in the top 1%! Try not to force anything. If you are able to see the setups on my charts, or the levels I give you, GREAT! That is the whole reason I am posting here. I signed up for this thread because Tatton was making some serious trades, and it really caught my attention, and brought me over to the "Darkside" of trading the GBPJPY. Since he's been gone, I've started posting, because I wanted to keep the traffic flowing through the thread, so it would still have interest when he came back. I was going to give out buy and sell signals, but I will leave that up to Tatton, if and when he comes back. Hope he gets better soon. I found I felt rather helpless when I used signal services, because I learned nothing. Then I was using a service, where a guy named Russ, would do a live room every night where he went over support, resistance, and trendlines. I learned the most from him. He is no longer around, don't know what happened to him.
Can you tell I like to write? Wake up Jermy! Sorry to be putting you to sleep! I'm just trying to instill in you, that you hone your skills that fit you and your temperament. 1M scalps, drive me nuts, but it doesn't mean I'm right! The main thing is that it works for you! It's your money your trading not mine. I'm happy to share what I do, with you. I am glad you appreciate some of it. "
Q: "Thanks to you. And yes it's ok to do the post. My system seems to be working, for that I'm glad, but even though I practice good money management, every now and then I break my own rules and pay dearly.
For instance lost 200 pips at this weeks open (Terribly married 2 trades). And has recover 150 pips up to now. What I don't get though trading 1H timeframe, how can you only go for 50/40pips? R u trading 1:1 risk reward. With my 1M set ups I can afford to run with 20/30/40 pips as I only risk 10:15 pips. And that's what I was hoping to improve. Especially like this week when I sit before the PC and watch the market run for 100s of pips and not be apart of it. Then you look back and really have to ask yourself where were you when all of that was happening. On second thought though. I'm really interested in your style of trading because I know this market changes and I hope I'll have a good enough system, or strategy to survive the changes.
Thanks again"
A: "Yes, I'm trading with Risk/Reward at about 1:1.
Like I told another trader on here, I wait for the move to start before I trade, I don't trade an anticipated move. So, I am always pretty damn sure it will keep going in the direction I based my trade on. Now, every currency pair is different. With the USDCHF or even the EURUSD, I'd be happy with 15-30 pips, the GBPUSD and the USDJPY 25-40. With the GBPJPY, 40-50, but if PA looks good, I'll wait and watch for a carry farther, but never be afraid to take a profit. I try and take trades where my stop loss never even gets close. So I miss the first few pips on a move? As long as I am really confident that the move is happening, I will execute the trade and make money.
With your larger losses, it is all a matter of sticking to your trade plan, and if those were intended to be scalps, you deviated from your trade plan. After a few losses like those, you will keep your stop losses set at 10:15. As for teaching my style of trading, I think I could write a 400 page book, and still not be able to teach it. I think it is a matter of following and watching, as I did with Russ. Finally, one day, I realized I was seeing it on my own, then slowly built up my confidence to seriously trade what I saw on my own. Hope this helps."
Q: "What I don't get though, trading 1H timeframe (chart), how can you only go for 50/40pips?
A: "I wanted to add to the subject a bit. For some reason, I am more comfortable watching PA on a 1H chart. I always enter a trade, where my stop loss is comfortably beyond a major S/R level, trendline, or pivot, without throwing my Risk/Reward off of 1:1. Pips are pips! As long as they are mine!"
Q: "I really would like to reach the level where I can analyze economic conditions, market sentiment, equities and the Dow so as to make better decisions. But then again would that work with my 1min time frames?"
A: "With the style of trading I use, I wait for the move to happen, not anticipate it. News and other events, indices, move the market, I watch for the move to start, then jump on it and go for a ride. I liken it to jumping on a train: Would you rather get on a train that you guess is going the right way, or would you rather get on a train that you know is going the right way? Yes, of course. I'd rather be pretty sure I'm going the right way, rather than just wingin' it!
As far as following news, the Dow, etc. Movement of the currencies, depends largely on economic conditions. With the world economic crisis in full swing, risk aversion/appetite is the norm. Just up until a year ago, if the DOW was up, it was generally good for the USD. Now, If the DOW is up, it drives risk appetite, and drives currency investors to branch out into other currencies. Presently, when the DOW is down, the world uses it as a economic "measuring stick" of things to come for the rest of the world, and drives investors into the USD as a safehaven. That will probably change if the US keeps leveraging itself deeper into massive debt. If and when that time comes, will have to learn to adjust. There is no crystal ball, so that is why it is so important to not over leverage your trades. The best thing you can do is try and keep yourself up to date with the worlds economic news, almost by the minute, while you trade. One very helpful tool is Keeping the news on, so you can listen while you trade. I really like Bloomberg, and that is why I was so happy that I figured out how to add it to my blog. Now I have it on, and it can run in the background while I watch charts. I have it on constantly during my trading sessions.
One important note surrounding news events, which I always remind everyone when I post setups, is to always check the news calendar to see what events are coming out during the trading day. Be aware of the news that could effect the PA of the currency pair you will be trading. Be very aware of the time, and make sure you have stop losses set, and probably tighter than you normally would, just in case the news spikes the price in the direction of your stop. Spikes can be huge, and you want to protect yourself for a spike in the wrong direction.
As for your timeframe, sclaping the 1 minute charts, the only thing you could base your trades on is directly after key news announcements, ie. GDP, or Non Farm Payroll. Otherwise, I think it would be difficult, unless you can get a feel for general market direction, during a trend and the fundamentals driving it.
Thanks for the great questions!"
Q: "Hi, I'm a pretty new trader, about 1years experience. Still looking to hone my skills. I've been around the trading roundabout; from naked charts to fundamental announcements to indicators and systems. Now I'm kinda rebuilding. I've been following this thread for a while now because I take particular interest in the GBP/JPY, and have found that you definitely know what your talking about. Thanks much and keep up the good work. What would be your advice to me to further develop my trading. I currently use multiple time frames and then scalp 1min. with a macd/rsi set up, coupled with some chart patterns. Pretty good so far, but I really would like to reach the level where I can analyze economic conditions, market sentiment, equities and the Dow so as to make better decisions. But then again would that work with my 1min time frames?"
A: "Thanks for the compliment! Always nice to hear!
As to your question: I think we're all different. My main flaw when starting out, was bad money management. I live in NV. I live in Reno now, but lived in Vegas for 11 years. This is the world capital of gambling. I have no problems throwing money around. My main problem was holding on to it. If I lost on a couple trades in a row, I'd double up, as if I was at the blackjack table.
Then after I conquered my bad money management, I then developed another bad habit. I would hold trades too long, either trying to wait for it to get out of the red, or instead of closing out and being happy with 30, 40 or 50 pips, I'd hold trying to get 100-200. I would be up 40 pips and instead of closing out, and taking profit (or moving my stop to break even), I'd hold too long and stop out at a loss, and if I was luck, I'd B/E. I still struggle with this problem. So these are my faults I worked on.
Trading strategy or methodology aside, what would you say are your fundamental faults? What ever you feel they are, correct them! It sounds like scalping the 1M chart is working for you. I can tell you it is not my cup of tea, but it works for you, and that is most important! When you are seriously trading, serious money, the most important thing is to be comfortable. If your head isn't in the right place, YOU WILL FAIL. The main thing is to establish a comfort level. When your comfortable, it is easier to be confident when you pull the trigger (click on buy or sell).
I am not a fan of indicators. I use only one, a MT4 custom indicator I think "Desperate" (John) posted on here a few months ago, and that is the AutoPivotIndicator_ver5. Was that you John? It shows a daily pivot, weekly and a monthly. That's it. Before I was a regular on FXFactory, I'd never heard the term "Naked Chartist." Now I know, I am a "Nudist" when it comes to my charts. I like to look at a bare chart, 1H, and I look for my three favorite patterns. They are the consolidation squeeze, and a tight horizontal range. The 3rd, I'm not even sure what the name is for it, but is when several hours of candles, are stacked up on a support line, or pushing up against a resistance line, and waiting for the collapse, or the explosion upward. Then coming up 4th, are clear trends and watching for trend breaks. I think it took a couple years of full time trading to really get a knack for it.
I think I learn and get better everyday. Forex really takes time. JUST REMEMBER: It doesn't matter what works for me, it is what you feel works best for you. I started trading in my mid 30's. After puberty hit, I was never the best student. I studied Economics and Finance at Chapman University in Southern California. Then in I think 1987, the movie "Wall Street" came out, and about the same time, "Trading Places." So, with a little over a year of College left, I started pumping out resumes to different investment firms. I was offered a job, quit school and went to work, and never looked back. Was I successful? Sometimes yes and sometimes not.
OK..... my point is, I am no fan of studying, books, classes, tutorials, seminars, none of it. I like to learn on my own, by throwing myself into the fire and learning by trial and error. With Forex, that was an expensive education! I spent a lot on paying for trade signals, live trade sessions, and mentoring. Some sucked and were a total waste of money, and others, I am grateful for. It was a lot of experimentation, and learning what was best and most comfortable for me. For you Jermy, it sounds like you are doing well for your first year of trading. If you are comfortable with your style, and you are making pips, you are in the elite 5%, and for a first year trader, I'd say you are in the top 1%! Try not to force anything. If you are able to see the setups on my charts, or the levels I give you, GREAT! That is the whole reason I am posting here. I signed up for this thread because Tatton was making some serious trades, and it really caught my attention, and brought me over to the "Darkside" of trading the GBPJPY. Since he's been gone, I've started posting, because I wanted to keep the traffic flowing through the thread, so it would still have interest when he came back. I was going to give out buy and sell signals, but I will leave that up to Tatton, if and when he comes back. Hope he gets better soon. I found I felt rather helpless when I used signal services, because I learned nothing. Then I was using a service, where a guy named Russ, would do a live room every night where he went over support, resistance, and trendlines. I learned the most from him. He is no longer around, don't know what happened to him.
Can you tell I like to write? Wake up Jermy! Sorry to be putting you to sleep! I'm just trying to instill in you, that you hone your skills that fit you and your temperament. 1M scalps, drive me nuts, but it doesn't mean I'm right! The main thing is that it works for you! It's your money your trading not mine. I'm happy to share what I do, with you. I am glad you appreciate some of it. "
Q: "Thanks to you. And yes it's ok to do the post. My system seems to be working, for that I'm glad, but even though I practice good money management, every now and then I break my own rules and pay dearly.
For instance lost 200 pips at this weeks open (Terribly married 2 trades). And has recover 150 pips up to now. What I don't get though trading 1H timeframe, how can you only go for 50/40pips? R u trading 1:1 risk reward. With my 1M set ups I can afford to run with 20/30/40 pips as I only risk 10:15 pips. And that's what I was hoping to improve. Especially like this week when I sit before the PC and watch the market run for 100s of pips and not be apart of it. Then you look back and really have to ask yourself where were you when all of that was happening. On second thought though. I'm really interested in your style of trading because I know this market changes and I hope I'll have a good enough system, or strategy to survive the changes.
Thanks again"
A: "Yes, I'm trading with Risk/Reward at about 1:1.
Like I told another trader on here, I wait for the move to start before I trade, I don't trade an anticipated move. So, I am always pretty damn sure it will keep going in the direction I based my trade on. Now, every currency pair is different. With the USDCHF or even the EURUSD, I'd be happy with 15-30 pips, the GBPUSD and the USDJPY 25-40. With the GBPJPY, 40-50, but if PA looks good, I'll wait and watch for a carry farther, but never be afraid to take a profit. I try and take trades where my stop loss never even gets close. So I miss the first few pips on a move? As long as I am really confident that the move is happening, I will execute the trade and make money.
With your larger losses, it is all a matter of sticking to your trade plan, and if those were intended to be scalps, you deviated from your trade plan. After a few losses like those, you will keep your stop losses set at 10:15. As for teaching my style of trading, I think I could write a 400 page book, and still not be able to teach it. I think it is a matter of following and watching, as I did with Russ. Finally, one day, I realized I was seeing it on my own, then slowly built up my confidence to seriously trade what I saw on my own. Hope this helps."
Q: "What I don't get though, trading 1H timeframe (chart), how can you only go for 50/40pips?
A: "I wanted to add to the subject a bit. For some reason, I am more comfortable watching PA on a 1H chart. I always enter a trade, where my stop loss is comfortably beyond a major S/R level, trendline, or pivot, without throwing my Risk/Reward off of 1:1. Pips are pips! As long as they are mine!"
Q: "I really would like to reach the level where I can analyze economic conditions, market sentiment, equities and the Dow so as to make better decisions. But then again would that work with my 1min time frames?"
A: "With the style of trading I use, I wait for the move to happen, not anticipate it. News and other events, indices, move the market, I watch for the move to start, then jump on it and go for a ride. I liken it to jumping on a train: Would you rather get on a train that you guess is going the right way, or would you rather get on a train that you know is going the right way? Yes, of course. I'd rather be pretty sure I'm going the right way, rather than just wingin' it!
As far as following news, the Dow, etc. Movement of the currencies, depends largely on economic conditions. With the world economic crisis in full swing, risk aversion/appetite is the norm. Just up until a year ago, if the DOW was up, it was generally good for the USD. Now, If the DOW is up, it drives risk appetite, and drives currency investors to branch out into other currencies. Presently, when the DOW is down, the world uses it as a economic "measuring stick" of things to come for the rest of the world, and drives investors into the USD as a safehaven. That will probably change if the US keeps leveraging itself deeper into massive debt. If and when that time comes, will have to learn to adjust. There is no crystal ball, so that is why it is so important to not over leverage your trades. The best thing you can do is try and keep yourself up to date with the worlds economic news, almost by the minute, while you trade. One very helpful tool is Keeping the news on, so you can listen while you trade. I really like Bloomberg, and that is why I was so happy that I figured out how to add it to my blog. Now I have it on, and it can run in the background while I watch charts. I have it on constantly during my trading sessions.
One important note surrounding news events, which I always remind everyone when I post setups, is to always check the news calendar to see what events are coming out during the trading day. Be aware of the news that could effect the PA of the currency pair you will be trading. Be very aware of the time, and make sure you have stop losses set, and probably tighter than you normally would, just in case the news spikes the price in the direction of your stop. Spikes can be huge, and you want to protect yourself for a spike in the wrong direction.
As for your timeframe, sclaping the 1 minute charts, the only thing you could base your trades on is directly after key news announcements, ie. GDP, or Non Farm Payroll. Otherwise, I think it would be difficult, unless you can get a feel for general market direction, during a trend and the fundamentals driving it.
Thanks for the great questions!"
RE: GBPJPY Update
Well, it did decide to range back down to 155.72, and has made a nice 200 pip run up. Even if you were able to only catch a buy on the break of 156.85, one could have grabbed a quick scalp out of that 100 pip move, (and it's still climbing). Pips are pips guys! Be happy with the positive numbers. 20 pips here, 40 there, are quite respectable trades. With the GBPJPY, we all know that once in a while, we will catch the 100, 200, 300 pip moves! They will come. I hope those of you that have been watching my charts, have been able to see the moves forming when I tell you the levels and when to watch for breaks.
GBPJPY Update
So far, I'm not seeing much on the GBPJPY. There is a definite resistance setting up on the 156.85. Could watch for a break above that for a possible scalp with a tight stop, or a possible fall back to 155.72, to form a range. Just keep an eye on the PA. After the wacky 48 hours we just had, I'd be careful and keep trades small until something more definite and clear sets up. I'm thinking about a rebound today, and weakness back in the USD. Have to keep an eye on US equities in overnight trading to see if they are back up.
Wednesday, June 3, 2009
Risk Aversion and the USD
Today is another classic case of risk aversion, driving up the USD. Why? I don't know. The USD as of late has been likened to toilet paper. Bankers and economists have been threatening the USD by doubting their faith in the dollar as a safe haven, but on a day, with bad political and economic news, the USD was bought up, and given back some lost ground. So, yes, the dollar is still a safe haven for the big investors that over the past few days, have talked it down. I knew economic news was going to be bad during the NY session and thought it would drive the dollar down. The DOW closed at -65.63 for the day. Not a horrible number, but it was enough to drive the GBP down a few hundred pips and the EUR a 100. News out of London about the Parliamentary resignations, didn't help sustain the Sterling's bull run. Now, the charts are starting to level out, and we should start to see some formations starting to take shape through the Asian session.
Tuesday, June 2, 2009
Range Break on USDJPY
Here is a clear example of a range break on the $Y. (see red arrow) For an 18 hour period, the 1H candles stayed within a 40 pip range. Once it made a break down, it made an approximate 90 pip move.
RE: GBPJPY
GBPJPY broke above 157.42, for a 165 pip move, as the USDJPY and GBPUSD started to cooperate with each other and started to move in the same direction. The red arrows indicate the synchronization of the move. During the NY session, the GBPUSD tends to move ahead of the GBPJPY, and can be a good indicator on the timing of a move.
GBPJPY
Keep and eye on the 1H GBPUSD and the 1H USDJPY. If and when they start moving in the same direction, watch the GBPJPY to also move in the same direction for a break of the 156.85 and/or the 157.42. Could be a good indicator for a quick 20-40 pip move, or more. Just watch the PA closely.
GBPJPY Update
The Daily pivot area and the 157 psyche level is proving a little stubborn. A break below has room to fall 100+ pips. Right now the GBPUSD is gaining while the USDJPY is falling and this can be a factor that is slowing down the GBPJPY.
Will the uptrend continue? GBPJPY
GBPJPY saw a stellar day yesterday with a 500+ pip move up. 158 has been a bit of a speed bump, and with the GBP losing some ground to the USD and the JPY doing the same, it is causing a bit of a stalemate for the GBPJPY. 158.50 will show some resistance on a move up, while 157.40 will show some support on a move down, with room to fall. After a large move like yesterday's, a sizable retracement wouldn't be a surprise. If you're long in this pair, just keep an eye on 157.40 and the Daily Pivot of 157.13 for support.
Monday, June 1, 2009
GBPUSD trading in a tight 50 pip range
The hot news of the day has been the bull run of the Sterling. Many of the other USD pairs have retraced a bit after a clear bout of Risk Appetite, and a general overall lack of confidence in the USD. As the other USD pairs have retraced, the GBPUSD been holding near the major psyche level of 1.64 . 1.64 has been finding good resistance after the Cable spiked as high as 1.6431 a few hours ago. It has maintained a steady 50 pip range with, the first area of support is showing at 1.6372, with bottom of the range support at 1.6350 below that. Could be setting up for a nice break out, before the close of the NY session. If a break out forms, look at the other USD pairs for confirmation, primarily the CHF and EUR.
Forex Trading
Sterling and EUR
Everyone is buying the Sterling as it is going up across the board. Resistance levels to watch are 155.50-155.72, Cable 1.64, and watch 1.43 on EURUSD. If you bought any of these pairs, and are up, move stops accordingly.
GBPJPY Update
If this hour's candle closes above 154.50, it could be a good indication that the The move could could continue up. Remember, EUR bank holidays is causing light volume, so it can cause price action (PA) to be erratic. News for the Sterling has been good as of late. Many top economists are still concerned with the credit crunch, which hasn't gone away, along with fears of deflation risk. There is an ECB meeting later in the week where these topics, especially deflation fears, will be discussed.
EURUSD is trying to break into new territory also, with the 2009 high of 1.4169 being threatened. another break to watch, but not liking trades in this market during the bank holiday. Maybe a good scalp opportunity, but needs to be watched closely.
Making the move now as this entry is written.
GBPJPY
GBPJPY is at the top of todays range, looks like it may want to break to the upside. Keep an eye on PA (price action).
Bank Holiday Today
Today are banking holidays in Germany, France and Switzerland. Trading volume will be thin, so keep this in mind if you are entering a trade. It can add to volatility or make PA (price action) a little week. So be careful and use stops to reduce risk.
Welcome!
Welcome to the FXTradePros.com blog. We hope to assist the new traders as well as the seasoned veterans expand their knowledge base in the Forex market. We will use basic, reliable tools to analyze charts and watch for breaks in trends and/or ranges. We will use simple language and descriptions, with corresponding charts. Later, we hope to implement video, to further expand on our chart analysis.
On this blog, we will also provide fundamental economic news and keep our readers informed on upcoming news events and other relavant events that may have an effect on price action. See the Economic News Calendar at the bottom of the page.
Other subjects discussed on the blog may cover Money Management, trading psychology, review of Forex education tools and products, and anything else that we may think may benefit you in your Forex experience.
Thanks for joining in! We will start regular posts soon.
Click to Zoom
On this blog, we will also provide fundamental economic news and keep our readers informed on upcoming news events and other relavant events that may have an effect on price action. See the Economic News Calendar at the bottom of the page.
Other subjects discussed on the blog may cover Money Management, trading psychology, review of Forex education tools and products, and anything else that we may think may benefit you in your Forex experience.
Thanks for joining in! We will start regular posts soon.
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